Study Predicts Nearly 2 Billion Will Have Metabolic Liver Disease by 2050

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), which was previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, is expected to impact approximately 1.8 billion individuals worldwide by the year 2050. This alarming forecast, released by the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study, highlights the pressing issue of metabolic liver disease, a condition that currently affects one in six people, equating to around 1.3 billion individuals globally, as reported in the Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology journal.

The prevalence of MASLD has seen a staggering increase of 143% over the last thirty years. Data indicates that in 1990, close to 500 million people were living with this condition, a figure that soared to 1.3 billion by 2023. Looking ahead, the disease is projected to grow by a further 42%, making it an increasingly significant public health challenge.

The study reveals that the global MASLD prevalence rate rose to 14,429 cases per 100,000 individuals in 2023, reflecting a 29% increase since 1990. Notably, MASLD manifests more frequently in men than in women, with the highest prevalence observed among older adults aged 80 to 84. However, the largest concentrations of cases are found in younger demographics, particularly among men aged 35 to 39 and women aged 55 to 59.

Key factors contributing to the rise of MASLD include high blood sugar levels, elevated body mass index (BMI), and smoking habits. These elements are closely linked to type 2 diabetes and obesity, suggesting a growing health crisis. Disparities are also evident across regions, with northern Africa and the Middle East experiencing significantly higher MASLD rates compared to other areas. Nonetheless, countries worldwide are witnessing sharp increases in affected populations.

In the UK, the prevalence of MASLD has risen by a notable 33% from 1990 to 2023, the largest increase in Western Europe. Australia recorded a 30% rise, while the United States saw a 22% increase in the same timeframe, according to an analysis conducted by The Guardian.

Importantly, despite the rising number of cases, the overall health impact—measured in years lost due to illness or premature death—remained stable. This suggests that advancements in treatment and care are allowing individuals with MASLD to lead longer and healthier lives, particularly in the early stages of the disease. However, the growing number of cases continues to pose a risk, with many individuals likely to face severe complications such as liver cirrhosis or cancer in the future.

MASLD is often associated with being overweight and can typically be managed through lifestyle alterations. The condition is frequently asymptomatic, meaning many people remain unaware they have it until they undergo tests for other health concerns. When symptoms do occur, they may include fatigue, general malaise, and discomfort in the abdomen, specifically under the right ribcage.

The research was spearheaded by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. The authors noted with concern the increasing prevalence of MASLD in younger individuals, reflecting changes in health and lifestyle. They emphasised the necessity of recognising MASLD as a global health priority and advocating for the development of policies, awareness campaigns, and interventions aimed at mitigating its impact and preventing future health complications.