Oil Prices Could Hit $150 as Iran War Threatens Gulf Exports

Global oil prices could surge sharply if the conflict involving Iran and the United States–Israel alliance continues to disrupt energy exports from the Middle East, according to Qatar’s energy minister.

Speaking as the conflict entered its seventh day, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs and chief executive of QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, warned that crude oil prices could rise to as much as $150 per barrel within weeks if tankers remain unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global energy supplies.

Rising tensions push oil prices higher

Benchmark Brent crude, the international reference price for oil, rose by around 2.5 percent on Friday to approximately $87.57 per barrel.

Analysts say the increase has been driven largely by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway located between Iran and Oman that serves as one of the world’s most critical energy transit corridors.

Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas exports pass through this route, making any interruption to shipping a major concern for global energy markets.

In comments to the Financial Times newspaper, Al-Kaabi warned that continued disruption could trigger a sharp escalation in prices.

“Everybody that has not called for force majeure, we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues,” he said. “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure.”

Force majeure is a legal term used in international contracts to suspend obligations when extraordinary events—such as war or natural disasters—make it impossible to fulfil them.

According to Al-Kaabi, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices could climb rapidly.

“If tankers cannot pass through the strait for two to three weeks, prices could reach $150 a barrel,” he said.

Impact on gas production and exports

The warning comes after Qatar temporarily halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) following reported strikes on key energy infrastructure.

In a statement earlier this week, QatarEnergy said operations had been suspended after attacks targeted facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City, two of the country’s main energy hubs.

“Due to military attacks on QatarEnergy’s operating facilities… QatarEnergy has ceased production of liquefied natural gas and associated products,” the company said.

Qatar is one of the world’s largest producers of LNG, accounting for nearly one-fifth of global supply. The suspension of production has therefore added to concerns about wider disruptions in international energy markets.

Industry sources also report that shipping conditions for LNG have become increasingly strained. Charter rates for LNG tankers have surged dramatically, with daily costs rising from roughly $40,000 last week to around $300,000 on some routes between the United States Gulf Coast and Europe.

The sharp increase reflects growing demand for available vessels as shipping routes through the Gulf region face disruption.

Global economic risks

Energy analysts warn that prolonged disruption in Middle Eastern exports could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

Al-Kaabi cautioned that a sustained conflict could affect economic growth worldwide by raising energy costs and disrupting industrial supply chains.

“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” he said.

He added that rising energy prices could lead to shortages of certain products and force factories to halt production if fuel or petrochemical feedstocks become scarce.

The Middle East remains central to global energy markets, supplying a large share of the world’s oil and gas. Any prolonged interruption to exports from the region could therefore influence prices across international markets.

India’s energy security response

India, one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil and natural gas, has been closely monitoring the developments.

Government sources said the country currently has adequate reserves of crude oil, petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Officials have also instructed refineries to increase LPG production to ensure domestic supply remains stable.

One government source said India’s energy position remained secure despite the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Today, we have more energy sources available than the fuel currently stranded in the Strait of Hormuz,” the source said.

“Our position in terms of crude oil, oil products and LPG is very good. We are in a good position based on current reserves.”

The source added that India could increase imports from alternative suppliers if shipments from the Gulf region are delayed.

“We will increase our supplies from other nations and make up for the shortfall in supplies from the Strait of Hormuz,” the official said.

Temporary US waiver for Russian oil purchases

In a separate development, the United States government has granted India a temporary waiver allowing the purchase of certain Russian oil shipments.

United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the waiver would last for 30 days and is intended to ensure that oil already stranded at sea can continue to reach global markets.

“President Trump’s energy agenda has resulted in oil and gas production reaching the highest levels ever recorded,” Mr Bessent said in a statement.

“To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil.”

He added that the measure is limited in scope and would not significantly benefit the Russian government because it only covers oil already in transit.

Context: Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

The Strait of Hormuz is widely regarded as one of the most strategically important shipping routes in the global energy system.

Located between Iran and Oman, the narrow channel connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and is used by oil and gas tankers transporting fuel from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar.

Because so much of the world’s energy trade passes through this single corridor, any military conflict or blockade in the area can rapidly influence global oil and gas prices.

If the current conflict continues and tanker traffic remains restricted, analysts say the resulting supply disruption could lead to significant volatility in energy markets and increased costs for consumers and industries around the world.