US Intelligence Points to Pakistan's Missile Threat, Analysts Disagree

The United States has recently expressed concerns regarding the missile capabilities of Pakistan, placing it in the same category as Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. In the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard outlined how these nations are developing advanced missile systems that could potentially threaten US territory, including Pakistan's ongoing long-range ballistic missile programme.

Gabbard indicated that Pakistan's missile development might lead to the creation of Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US. In the written assessment, the potential for Pakistan's missile technology to strike beyond South Asia was highlighted. It stated that if current trends continue, Pakistan could develop ICBMs that would pose a threat to the US. The report emphasised that Pakistan, alongside China, North Korea, and Russia, would likely continue enhancing its weapons of mass destruction, potentially challenging US missile defences.

The report also noted the persistent security challenges in South Asia, particularly the strained relations between India and Pakistan, which could lead to nuclear conflict. It cited last year’s armed attack in Pahalgam, situated in Indian-administered Kashmir, as a situation that could incite crises, despite efforts from former President Donald Trump to mitigate tensions. Projections estimate a dramatic increase in missile threats to the US, possibly rising from 3,000 today to 16,000 by 2035.

In response to these assertions, spokesman for Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tahir Andrabi, firmly rejected Gabbard's claims regarding a potential threat from Pakistan's missiles. He stated that Pakistan’s strategic capabilities are entirely defensive, aimed at preserving national sovereignty and ensuring stability in South Asia. Andrabi remarked that Pakistan's missile programme is well below intercontinental range and is grounded in the concept of credible minimum deterrence in relation to India.

He highlighted that India's missile development capabilities exceed 12,000 kilometres (7,460 miles), which creates concerns beyond regional security for Pakistan. Andrabi urged the US to reconsider its stance and to adopt a more informed approach that recognises the strategic realities of South Asia, advocating for peace and stability in the region.

Tughral Yamin, an expert in arms control and nuclear affairs, reflected on Gabbard's comments, noting that similar statements have been made by US officials previously. He asserted that Pakistan's deterrent capabilities are specifically directed towards India and that the country is committed to pursuing peace rather than being driven by US characterisations of threat.

Experts have questioned the logic behind the concerns over Pakistan’s missile capabilities given the range limitations. Pakistan’s current longest-range operational missile, the Shaheen-III, has an estimated range of around 2,750 kilometres (1,710 miles), sufficient to cover all of India. However, for a missile to be classified as an intercontinental ballistic missile, it must have a range exceeding 5,500 kilometres (3,420 miles), which Pakistan lacks. The distances between the United States and Pakistan, exceeding 11,200 kilometres (7,000 miles), render the prospect of Pakistani missiles striking the US highly implausible.

In January last year, US officials assessed ambiguously how far Pakistan was from being able to deploy long-range ballistic missiles, suggesting it would take several years to a decade. This indicates that Washington's assessment regarding Pakistan's missile capabilities has not considerably changed. The United States has remained vigilant regarding Pakistan's missile advancements. In December 2024, the administration of former President Joe Biden imposed sanctions on Pakistan's National Development Complex, the agency responsible for its ballistic missile initiatives, along with other private entities, over allegations of procurement for long-range missile projects.

Jon Finer, then-deputy national security adviser, had remarked that if ongoing trends persisted, Pakistan would eventually secure the ability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including locations within the US. In reply to these US claims, Pakistani officials have consistently decried the assertions as unfounded and politically motivated, expressing concerns about perceived biases in US negotiations.

Jalil Abbas Jilani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, has categorically dismissed Gabbard’s assertions, labelling them as disconnected from strategic realities. He argued that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is geared towards achieving credible deterrence in the South Asian context, opposing any notion of global power projection.

Former high commissioner to India, Abdul Basit, similarly contested Gabbard's claims, contending that such statements reveal a lack of understanding and are often steeped in self-serving narratives. Pakistan has reiterated its commitment to its defence strategy being India-focused and aims to maintain stability in the region.