Thackeray Brothers Seek Vote Consolidation Ahead of BMC Elections

MUMBAI: Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray are strategising for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, aiming to replicate the success of Shiv Sena (UBT) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Their goal is to secure as many as 113 out of the 227 seats in the BMC. In the previous Lok Sabha elections, Shiv Sena (UBT) captured three of the six available seats, narrowly losing another by just 34 votes in Mumbai. The support from Congress's voter base—particularly among Muslim and Dalit communities—and backing from Sharad Pawar's supporters in Mumbai proved crucial in winning several seats. The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition effectively limited the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Eknath Shinde's faction of Shiv Sena to just one seat each in the financial hub.

The BMC elections, scheduled for January 15, 2026, pose a significant challenge, especially since Congress has opted out of collaborating with the Thackeray brothers due to disputes over seat allocation and concerns regarding Raj Thackeray's stance against North Indians, which may alienate Congress's North Indian voters. Although the Thackerays have united for the first time in 20 years, they face numerous obstacles ahead of the BMC elections.

A potential advantage for Uddhav Thackeray is the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), led by Raj Thackeray, which holds about seven per cent of the vote share in Mumbai. This could help bridge the gap left by the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Congress, yet it still leaves a six per cent shortfall that must be addressed. To enhance their chances, the Thackerays will need to conduct extensive rallies, strengthen their grassroots network, and effectively mobilise resources. Their efforts will be pivotal in swaying voter sentiment in their favour.

Despite the Thackerays' alliance, the BJP remains confident, having secured a 27 per cent vote share in Mumbai. Eknath Shinde's faction is expected to draw at least an additional five per cent vote share. The BJP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena are poised for a potentially historic win in this competitive BMC election. In the previous state assembly elections, Shinde's faction won six seats in Mumbai, while the BJP claimed 15 and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) secured one seat. Consequently, the BJP and Shiv Sena appear unfazed by the changes in the political landscape.

The division within the MVA has bolstered the BJP's confidence, as their support base comprising Gujarati, Marwari, and North Indian voters in Mumbai remains stable. Conversely, the opposition faces fragmentation. If Muslim and Dalit votes become dispersed among the Thackerays, Congress, NCP, Samajwadi Party, and others, replicating the Lok Sabha success in the BMC elections could prove challenging.

In parallel developments, the Thackeray brothers' reconciliation follows a similar rapprochement between Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar, who announced their collaboration for the Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation elections. The reunification of these prominent political families signals a shift in Maharashtra's political dynamics, particularly as they face the formidable BJP.

Political analysts suggest that the timing of these reunions is strategic, as both families aim to consolidate their influence ahead of the BMC elections. The Thackerays, in particular, are positioned to leverage their legacy and voter loyalty to counter the BJP's dominance, while the Pawars seek to strengthen their grassroots presence.

As the elections approach, the implications of these alliances and the potential for voter consolidation will become clearer. The coming civic polls will be a critical test of whether these reunifications can translate into electoral success against the backdrop of Maharashtra's complex political landscape.