Thackeray Cousins Unite, Challenging Congress in Maharashtra Politics

In a significant shift within Maharashtra's political framework, the reunion of the Thackeray cousins, Uddhav and Raj, after two decades, has reshaped the dynamics of the state's governance. This new partnership has effectively marked the decline of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an opposition coalition formed in 2019 that included the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray.

The MVA, which governed Maharashtra for two and a half years, faced a major setback in 2022 when internal divisions led to a split between the Shiv Sena and the NCP. Despite this, the coalition managed a strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, securing 30 out of the 48 parliamentary seats in the state. However, this success was short-lived as the MVA suffered a substantial defeat in the subsequent assembly elections, securing only 46 seats out of 288.

This latest alliance between the Thackeray cousins has left the MVA on the brink of collapse. Sharad Pawar, leader of the NCP, has expressed a willingness to collaborate with the Thackeray cousins, but the Congress has found itself increasingly isolated. The party declined to ally with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), which has adopted a confrontational stance against north Indian migrants, further complicating the Congress's position.

The immediate challenge for the Congress Party is the forthcoming elections for 29 civic corporations in Maharashtra, including the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), scheduled for January 15. In recent municipal council and nagar panchayat elections, the BJP-led coalition, known as Mahayuti, emerged victorious, while the Congress secured a total of 824 seats. In comparison, its MVA partners, the NCP and Uddhav's faction of the Shiv Sena, managed only 256 and 244 seats, respectively.

Maharashtra Congress chief Harshwardhan Sapkal has announced that the party is in discussions to form an alliance with Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) for the upcoming civic elections. However, it remains uncertain whether this partnership will be sufficient to counter the ruling Mahayuti coalition, as well as the strong local appeal of the Thackeray brothers.

The Congress's decision to pursue an independent path in Maharashtra represents a bold strategy. Once a dominant force in the state's political arena, the party has experienced a significant decline in its electoral success since 2009. In the 2024 assembly elections, the Congress won only 16 of the 101 seats it contested, achieving a mere 12.42% vote share—the lowest in its history in Maharashtra, although still surpassing all parties except the BJP.

The Congress is likely hoping to consolidate support from minority communities, Dalits, and migrant voters by distancing itself from Raj Thackeray's rhetoric. The party is also aiming to avoid the anti-incumbency sentiment that has surrounded Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, which has held power in the BMC for several years.

Nonetheless, this independent approach positions the Congress against the BJP, which has consistently triumphed in recent elections. Additionally, it risks further fragmenting the opposition vote in the civic elections, potentially benefiting the BJP-led Mahayuti.

The upcoming local elections will serve as a critical test of the Congress's organisational strength, which has been waning in various states. A commendable performance could lead to a reevaluation of the party's alliance strategies, while a disappointing outcome might deepen its challenges and diminish its leverage in future negotiations.

For now, the Congress maintains that the independent candidacies of MVA members in the civic elections should not be interpreted as a fracture within either the MVA or the broader INDIA coalition. Leader of Opposition Vijay Wadettiwar defended the party's independent stance, asserting that local elections operate under distinct political contexts compared to national and assembly elections.

However, if the resurgence of the Thackeray cousins translates into electoral success, the Congress may face an extended period of isolation in Maharashtra's political landscape.