Sanae Takaichi's Conservatives Projected for Landslide Election Victory

In Japan, recent exit polls have indicated that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), under the leadership of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, is on track for a resounding electoral victory. This election, held during severe winter weather, marks a significant step for the LDP, as early projections suggest the party could secure between 274 and 328 seats in the 465-member lower house of parliament. This outcome would restore the majority that the party lost in 2024.

The public broadcaster NHK reported that this potential supermajority, alongside its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, would facilitate Takaichi's legislative agenda. Having called a snap election shortly after becoming Japan’s first female prime minister last autumn, Takaichi had committed to resign if her coalition did not achieve a simple majority.

Despite the challenging environment, with heavy snow disrupting services and casting doubt on voter turnout, Takaichi's approach has resonated with many. She introduced a substantial $135 billion stimulus package aimed at alleviating the ongoing cost-of-living crisis and promised to suspend the 8% consumption tax on food for two years, which could result in significant revenue loss.

Analysts have raised concerns about the implications of her spending plans on Japan’s public finances, particularly given that the nation’s debt exceeds double its gross domestic product, the highest among advanced economies. In response to the exit poll results, Takaichi stated, "We have consistently stressed the importance of responsible and proactive fiscal policy. We will prioritise the sustainability of fiscal policy."

The election has highlighted Takaichi's initial foray into diplomatic relations, marked by controversial remarks suggesting Japan may engage militarily should China attempt an invasion of Taiwan. This statement has complicated Sino-Japanese relations, leading to a decrease in Chinese tourism to Japan and strained cultural exchanges. Despite these diplomatic tensions, Takaichi's stance has garnered favour with many voters.

Political analyst Margarita Estévez-Abe commented that Sunday’s electoral success could provide Takaichi with the opportunity to mend ties with China, as she would not face further electoral pressures until 2028.

The weather played a significant role in the election, with turnout figures indicating lower participation compared to previous elections. Approximately 21.6% of voters had shown up with only four hours remaining before the polls closed, a decrease from past participation rates. The stormy conditions led to the suspension of numerous train services and the cancellation of over 230 domestic flights, according to transportation officials.

Kazushige Cho, a 54-year-old educator, expressed determination to vote despite the harsh conditions, highlighting Takaichi's leadership and policy initiatives. This election represents a pivotal moment for the LDP, which has faced challenges in recent years under previous leadership.

As the counting of votes progresses, the complete result will not be finalised until late on Sunday. Should the LDP-led coalition achieve an absolute majority of 261 seats, it would have greater control over parliamentary committees, enabling easier passage of budgetary and other legislation. A supermajority of 310 seats would empower the coalition to override decisions from the upper house, where it lost its majority last year.