Political Uncertainty in Israel After Election Results

Following the legislative elections on 27 October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is grappling with political uncertainty as his coalition lost its parliamentary majority. The election outcomes revealed that Netanyahu's alliance secured 53 seats while a bloc of opposing Jewish parties claimed 48 seats. Additionally, Arab-led factions won 19 seats, resulting in all groups failing to achieve the 61-seat threshold needed for a majority in the Knesset, Israel's parliament.

This scenario sets the stage for protracted political manoeuvring amid competing interests and potential collaborations among various factions. The election results require certification by 4 November, after which the newly formed Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on 10 November. Israeli President Isaac Herzog is tasked with selecting a member of the Knesset to attempt the formation of a new government by 11 November.

Candidates for this role are yet to be confirmed, but likely contenders include Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief whose party emerged as the most voted within the opposition bloc. Recent reports suggest that Eisenkot may have a slight advantage as some Arab parties are contemplating supporting him in a bid to unseat Netanyahu. This prospect aligns with calls from various political figures for a shift away from rigid party lines to forge a unity government, a position Herzog has urged for in order to avoid another election cycle.

The complexities of coalition-building are underscored by the varying positions of the parties involved. Although Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have historically dismissed partnerships with Arab-led parties, some former officials believe a realignment may be possible. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak has articulated that Arab parties, led by figures such as Mansour Abbas, could play a significant role in any coalition, especially if Netanyahu were in a similar position. Abbas has indicated a willingness to engage with the opposition.

Yousef Jabareen from the Arab-led Joint List expressed that collaboration between Jewish and Arab parties is crucial for reforming the current government, stating that “the change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership.”

The prospect of an Arab-inclusive coalition is viewed as vital for the future of Israeli democracy, according to civil society representatives. Raluca Ganea, co-founder of Zazim, emphasised that cooperation between the opposition bloc and Arab parties is essential for advancing democracy in Israel.

In the event that Herzog's initial candidate fails to form a government within 42 days, he may call upon another Knesset member, who will be granted 28 days to attempt a coalition. If all else fails, a new election could be on the horizon, needing to be scheduled within 90 days. Until a new government is established, Netanyahu will remain in his role as caretaker prime minister, which may extend his premiership despite potential opposition success.