Iraq Marks US Troop Withdrawal: A Shift in National Security

Iraq is commemorating the withdrawal of United States military personnel by observing four days designated as 'Sovereignty Days', highlighting a significant historical moment following decades of foreign military presence. The completion of the US troop withdrawal, finalised on September 30, marks the conclusion of the Global Coalition to Defeat Islamic State (ISIL).

This withdrawal represents the end of a two-year phased exit strategy for US forces from Iraq, initiating a transformative period in the country's security landscape. A joint statement from Iraq and the United States earlier this year had indicated a two-phase approach: the first phase concluded combat operations within Iraq by the end of September 2025, while the second phase involves ongoing support for actions against ISIL in Syria until September 2026.

In January, Iraqi officials announced that coalition advisers had withdrawn from federal territories, although logistical support for operations in Syria would remain facilitated through a base in Erbil, a key city in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The recent departure of US forces brings to a halt a twelve-year commitment first initiated in response to ISIL's rise in 2014. At its peak in 2007, the US military presence included approximately 170,000 personnel, which was reduced to about 2,500 in recent years, focusing efforts primarily in northern Iraq and Syria.

Alongside military personnel, essential military equipment is also being withdrawn, including advanced air defence systems. Kurdish military commander Sirwan Barzani expressed concerns regarding the potential loss of vital capabilities such as intelligence and logistical support. Since the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran earlier this year, the Kurdish-administered region has experienced over 1,000 drone and missile strikes. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani cautioned that the withdrawal could leave the region defenseless amid escalating threats.

In the capital, Iraqi authorities maintain that the responsibilities for many security operations have been transitioned to local forces prior to the US exit. Lieutenant General Khalid al-Tamimi, commander of the Iraqi Air Force, stated that coalition operations ceased within Iraq since 2026, with local forces now independently conducting aerial reconnaissance. The air force has claimed to operate its fleet of F-16 fighters autonomously for extended periods.

Despite the growing capacity of Iraqi military forces, the challenges in air defence capabilities remain pressing. Iraqi military spokesperson Sabah al-Numan indicated ongoing negotiations for acquiring air defence systems from South Korea, Turkey, and the United States, aiming to enhance protection over Iraqi airspace, particularly in the Kurdistan region. However, experts like Hassan Barari from the University of Jordan emphasise doubts about Iraq’s ability to safeguard its airspace from threats.

While ISIL's influence has significantly dwindled, the group remains active and has purportedly coordinated attacks in anticipation of the withdrawal. Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior Iraqi security official, warned that ISIL seeks to assert its relevance through violent acts. Moreover, several Iranian-aligned militias have heralded the US withdrawal as a symbolic victory, with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq reaffirming their resolve against US influence.

Although Baghdad had initially set a deadline for all armed groups to disarm coinciding with the US troop withdrawal, this deadline has since been extended to June 2027 following widespread rejections by various factions. Even with the withdrawal, the United States is set to continue bilateral security cooperation with Iraq. A recent security dialogue highlighted ongoing collaboration, including training initiatives and the deployment of liaison officers, demonstrating a long-term commitment to supporting Iraq’s stability amidst evolving security challenges.