Iraq Completes US Troop Withdrawal Amid Ongoing Security Concerns

The US-led coalition's combat operations in Iraq are officially concluding today, September 30, 2026. This mission was initially established in response to the territorial advances made by ISIS in 2014. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi has championed the withdrawal as a significant step towards restoring Iraqi sovereignty, garnering support from Iranian-affiliated political factions. However, Kurdish and Sunni leaders express concerns that the timing of the pullout is premature, highlighting ongoing threats from ISIS sleeper cells and a lack of support from US air forces and intelligence operations.

The disarmament of militias in Iraq has faced significant delays and is not expected to be completed until June 2027. Hardline factions, notably Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba, are resisting calls to relinquish their arms. An official from the Kurdistan Regional Government stated, "The political, security and military situation in Iraq has not yet reached a level of stability that would justify such a withdrawal."

This week marks a pivotal moment for Iraq, as the impending US troop withdrawal coincides with the beginning of a lengthy process aimed at regulating the weapons held by militias. For years, various Iraqi administrations have attempted to curb the influence of Iranian-backed armed groups while also pledging to remove foreign military personnel from the nation. Prime Minister Al Zaidi is spearheading these efforts.

While the mission of the US-led coalition is drawing to a close, officials confirm that the remaining US troops located in the Kurdish region will adhere to the September 30 withdrawal deadline. Iraq is now looking towards establishing individual bilateral security agreements with the United States, NATO, and other nations.

Initially, the withdrawal timetable was associated with a demand for militias to disarm, as Baghdad faces mounting pressure from Washington to manage militia activities. However, many factions remain defiant, indicating no inclination to meet these demands. An Iraqi official commented on the looming withdrawal, stating, "Everyone is anxious as to what will happen after the September 30 deadline. Iraq is currently in a fragile situation due to the war between the US and Iran. No one is clear about the future posture of the government, militias, or foreign actors in Iraq."

Compounding these challenges, Iraq’s relationships with neighbouring Arab nations are strained, characterised by limited cooperation and escalating distrust. Accusations among regional states have heightened tensions further.

Iraq has found itself at the epicentre of US-Iran conflict, with both American military installations and Iranian-affiliated groups facing attacks. Iranian-aligned factions have regularly targeted US facilities and launched drone strikes against Gulf states, leading nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and others to hold Baghdad accountable for these aggressions.

Efforts to rebuild relations with the Gulf region have intensified as Iraq navigates these complexities. Iranian-backed groups within Iraq have consistently demanded the expulsion of foreign forces, targeting US assets since the onset of the Iranian conflict in February.

US military involvement in Iraq began in 2003 with the intent of toppling Saddam Hussein, leading to a prolonged occupation and counterinsurgency efforts. After withdrawing in late 2011, the US returned to support Iraqi forces in battling ISIS from 2014 to 2017 upon Baghdad's request.

In a framework established in 2024, Iraq and the United States agreed to conclude the military coalition's operations by September 30, 2026. An Iraqi official noted that the deadline for US troop withdrawal was set during Prime Minister Al Zaidi's visit to Washington in July, emphasising that the date was primarily influenced by him rather than American decisions.

Despite common interests in combating ISIS, there exist divergences between the perspectives of Baghdad and Erbil, the Kurdistan region's capital, concerning the consequences of the US-led coalition's exit. An official noted, "The issue remains the promise that Mr Al Zaidi made to disarm militias. They have no intention to drop their arms by September 30; that is why the government has extended the deadline into next year."

Prime Minister Al Zaidi has announced a revision of the withdrawal plan, indicating that efforts towards militia disarmament would aim for completion by June 2027. While some factions, including Asaib Ahl Al Haq and Kataib Imam Ali, allege they have submitted their arms to the state, the defiant hardline groups maintain their stance against disarmament until foreign military presence is non-existent.

To commemorate this pivotal occasion, the government has declared public holidays from Wednesday to Saturday under the theme of "Days of Sovereignty". The holidays are intended to celebrate the conclusion of the coalition's combat mission, which the government portrays as a significant restoration of Iraq's national sovereignty. Despite the public celebrations displayed through billboards in Baghdad, opinions among the populace regarding the US troop withdrawal remain deeply divided.