Houthi Control of Red Sea Chokepoint Highlights BRICS Divisions

The control of key Red Sea shipping routes by Houthi rebels from Yemen has raised alarms internationally, affecting global trade dynamics and revealing considerable divisions within the BRICS bloc, composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

The Houthis have intensified their grip on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a crucial passageway for maritime traffic connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. This strait handles approximately 12% of global trade. Concurrently, Iranian influence in the region remains pronounced, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flows have plummeted from 9 million barrels per day to between 3.7 and 6.4 million barrels.

The implications of the Houthi advancements were evident as BRICS leaders gathered in New Delhi for their 18th annual summit. Formed in 2006 to challenge Western dominance in global governance, the BRICS group, which has expanded to include new members such as Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, has found itself at a crossroads. According to BRICS data, the bloc represents approximately 49.5% of the global population and 40% of global GDP, positioning it as a significant player on the world stage.

Despite its potential influence, the recent conflicts have exposed underlying fractures within BRICS. The New Delhi declaration, issued by the group, notably omitted any reference to the ongoing situation in the Red Sea or the Houthis, signalling a failure to unify on important geopolitical issues. The declaration merely called for “maximum restraint,” indicating a cautious approach to a multi-faceted crisis.

Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability has intensified as the Houthis now oversee the Bab al-Mandeb strait, severely impacting the country's east-west pipeline aimed at bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. This pipeline has recently faced disruptions due to attacks attributed to Iranian-backed groups. For Egypt, reliance on revenue from the Suez Canal has come under threat, as shipping traffic is already regarded as high-risk due to ongoing tensions in the region.

The situation is compounded by a recent suspension of trade relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran, fuelling concerns over maritime security. This follows incidents involving attacks on vessels associated with Abu Dhabi’s national oil interests.

China and India, major oil importers, have a vested interest in maintaining open routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea to stabilise global oil prices; however, their significance in BRICS combined with current tensions may complicate their responses. Conversely, Russia stands to benefit economically from the situation, as tighter control over these chokepoints could inadvertently improve its oil trade with India and China.

The multilayered conflicts within and around BRICS are emblematic of broader geopolitical struggles. Tensions are palpable between members, with Iran engaged in contentious relations with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while India and China face intermittent disputes over borders and influence in Asia.

The evolving security landscape presents challenges for BRICS ambitions to act as a voice for the Global South amid existing discord. The rapidly expanding membership, while touted as a success, has led to a dilution of consensus on key matters, making clear statements increasingly difficult.

As the situation unfolds, the control of Bab al-Mandeb and the responses of involved nations will significantly impact global shipping dynamics. Future military actions from either side could lead to escalated conflict, potentially influencing international relations far beyond the immediate region.