Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: NDA Forecasted to Win by Exit Polls

NEW DELHI: Recent exit polls have indicated a likely victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, scheduled for November 14. Polling agencies, including Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, predict that the NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, will secure a significant number of seats, while the opposition coalition, known as Mahagathbandhan, is projected to struggle to reach the majority threshold.

According to Axis My India, the NDA is anticipated to win between 121 and 141 seats out of the 243 total seats in the Bihar Legislative Assembly, capturing approximately 43% of the vote share. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) among others, is estimated to secure between 98 and 118 seats with a vote share of 41%.

Today’s Chanakya has provided even more optimistic numbers for the NDA, forecasting between 160 seats (+/- 12) with a 44% vote share (+/- 3%), while estimating the Mahagathbandhan to win around 77 seats (+/- 13) with 38% of the votes (+/- 3%).

A comprehensive analysis, referred to as a 'poll of polls', suggests that the NDA could potentially achieve around 148 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to acquire approximately 88 seats, with minor parties expected to claim about seven seats.

In terms of voter turnout, Bihar witnessed a participation rate of 68.52% during the second phase of voting, as reported by the Election Commission. This phase covered 122 constituencies, and the turnout was seen as a reflection of public engagement with the electoral process.

The previous Bihar Assembly elections in 2020 were conducted in three phases, resulting in the NDA winning 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan's 110 seats. In this context, the NDA's major parties included the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while the Mahagathbandhan comprised primarily the RJD and the Indian National Congress.

Political analyst Prashant Kishor’s newly formed Jan Suraaj Party is projected to face challenges, with expectations of winning only 0 to 2 seats, indicating its limited influence in this election cycle.

Mahagathbandhan’s Chief Ministerial candidate, Tejashwi Yadav, has dismissed the exit polls, alleging that they are conducted under the influence of the BJP and are intended to sway public perception rather than reflect actual electoral outcomes. He urged voters to consider the polls critically, emphasising that they should not be seen as definitive indicators of election results.

As the election date approaches, the political landscape in Bihar remains dynamic, with significant implications for both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan depending on the final voter turnout and public sentiment on polling day.