US Think Tank Warns of Potential India-Pakistan Conflict in 2026

The possibility of renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan is highlighted in a recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a prominent US think tank. The report indicates a 'moderate likelihood' of conflict occurring in 2026, driven by escalating tensions and ongoing terrorist activities, particularly in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Despite a ceasefire following a brief but intense military confrontation in May 2025, the geopolitical climate between the two nations remains volatile. The CFR's Center for Preventive Action (CPA) aims to provide policymakers with strategies to mitigate armed conflict, focusing on regions that could significantly affect American interests.

The report warns that heightened terrorist threats and political repression in Kashmir could trigger hostilities. According to the CPA, the impact of such a conflict would be deemed 'moderate' on US interests, reflecting the interconnected nature of global security dynamics.

In May 2025, both countries engaged in a four-day skirmish marked by drone and missile strikes, a response to a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam that claimed 22 civilian lives. Following this, India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. Although a ceasefire was established, both nations have continued to enhance their military capabilities, with India recently approving substantial defence procurements, including drones and guided munitions.

Conversely, Pakistan is reportedly in discussions with Turkey and China to bolster its aerial defence systems, particularly in light of vulnerabilities exposed during the May conflict.

The CFR report also draws parallels with the previous administration under former President Donald Trump, suggesting that efforts were made to de-escalate various global conflicts, including the India-Pakistan situation. However, Indian officials have denied any involvement of the US in facilitating the ceasefire, asserting that it was a product of direct military dialogue.

In addition to the India-Pakistan scenario, the report addresses potential conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, citing a 'moderate likelihood' of renewed hostilities due to cross-border militant activity. Recent tensions along the 2,600-kilometre Durand Line have already resulted in violent exchanges between Pakistani and Afghan forces, raising concerns about broader regional instability.

The CFR categorises potential international conflicts by their likelihood of escalation and potential impact on American interests, providing a structured approach to understanding global security challenges. As geopolitical tensions continue to evolve, the report serves as a timely reminder of the fragility of peace in South Asia and the broader implications for global stability.