Ukraine's Former Defence Minister Advocates for Wartime Elections

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's former defence minister, has called for a wartime presidential election, marking a significant political challenge to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy since the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022. Fedorov's remarks came following his dismissal last month, which prompted protests across the country.

In a video address, Fedorov stressed the need for Ukraine to "restore a full democratic process even amid a prolonged war." He stated, “Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia. We are fighting precisely because we want to remain a free European state.” Although he did not directly mention Zelenskyy, his comments suggested criticism of the current administration's perceived inefficiencies, particularly concerning corruption in the face of national emergency.

Fedorov elaborated on the challenges facing the government: “People cannot endlessly live in a state where they do not understand why certain decisions are made. Why some reforms move forward while others are blocked.” He argued that Ukraine could effectively conduct elections while simultaneously engaging in military operations.

The backdrop of this call for elections is notable as polling in Ukraine has not taken place since martial law was instituted following the invasion. Zelenskyy’s current five-year term is set to expire in May 2024, yet there is a prevailing sentiment against holding elections during wartime.

Interestingly, former US President Donald Trump has previously called for elections in Ukraine, reflecting the complexities of international relations amidst the conflict. Over the past year, the relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy has improved, particularly as Ukraine demonstrated resilience on the battlefield.

At 35 years old, Fedorov was previously known as Ukraine’s digital minister prior to his role in defence, where he had gained recognition for the country’s innovative use of drones during the ongoing conflict. His sudden dismissal in a government reshuffle, reportedly linked to tensions with military commander General Oleksandr Syrskyi, led to protests in Kyiv demanding his reinstatement. While Syrskyi was dismissed amid protests, Fedorov’s return to the government appears unlikely.

On Tuesday, President Zelenskyy officially nominated Yevhen Khmara as the acting defence minister, a nomination that awaits parliamentary approval, with a vote anticipated on Wednesday.

Political analyst Artem Bronzhukov raised concerns about the feasibility of holding elections amidst the ongoing Russian bombardment. He noted there is “no clear understanding of how to ensure people’s safety in the context of a full-scale war.” Furthermore, there exists a sentiment among the Ukrainian populace that elections should occur only after the conflict subsides, emphasizing that the country remains a "warring democracy," a sentiment underscored by the protests that occurred following Fedorov's dismissal.

Protests have been ongoing near the presidential office in central Kyiv, although attendance has varied. However, a recent rally resurrected the campaign, drawing around 2,000 supporters chanting Fedorov’s name.

Recent polling from the Socis Centre for Social Research suggested that Fedorov would secure approximately 13.1% of the vote during a presidential election, placing him third behind Zelenskyy at 22.3% and Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK and former head of the armed forces, at 21.4%. The same polling declared that both Fedorov and Zaluzhnyi would likely defeat Zelenskyy in a runoff.

Should elections be held, Ukraine would face significant logistical challenges, with millions displaced since the war began and over one million active in the military, many of whom are engaged on the front lines. Moreover, approximately a fifth of Ukraine's territory remains under Russian occupation, complicating the electoral landscape further.