Shift in Indian American Support from Republicans Ahead of Midterms

In a notable political shift, Indian Americans are moving away from the Republican Party as the US midterm elections draw near. A survey conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reveals that 62 per cent of Indian American respondents plan to vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while only 19 per cent expressed support for Republicans. This marks a substantial decline in Republican support compared to data from the 2024 presidential election, where former President Donald Trump garnered 30 per cent of the Indian American vote against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who received 62 per cent.

The Carnegie survey, which was executed in partnership with research firm YouGov, included responses from 1,000 Indian American adults between October 7 and October 27, 2026, with a margin of error of 3.87 percentage points. Among those surveyed, a significant 63 per cent indicated intentions to vote for Democratic candidates in Senate races, compared to 21 per cent for Republicans. These figures suggest a recovery in Democratic backing, especially since earlier this year, only 57 per cent of Indian Americans expressed support for Democrats, while 25 per cent backed Trump.

Authors of the survey cautioned that while comparisons between various polls should be approached with care—given differing focuses on presidential and congressional voting intentions—the trend indicates a decline in durable Republican support among Indian Americans. According to their analysis, this demographic shows a stronger inclination toward the Democratic Party than several other racial and ethnic groups in the United States. For instance, while 62 per cent of Indian American respondents indicated plans to vote Democrat, this is contrasted with 40 per cent of white voters and 46 per cent of Hispanic voters, while support for Democratic candidates among Black voters stands at 76 per cent.

An interesting trend has emerged among older Indian American men, who had previously shown a willingness to support Republican candidates. In this subgroup, Republican support fell to 16 per cent, a marked decline from 32 per cent reported in January 2026. Meanwhile, Democratic support among this group increased from 53 per cent to 68 per cent. Younger Indian American men aged 18 to 39 exhibited a similar pattern, with 64 per cent intending to support Democratic candidates compared to just 23 per cent for Republicans.

Within the female demographic, voting intentions varied significantly by age group. Among women aged 18 to 39, 58 per cent plan to support Democratic congressional candidates, with Republican support at 21 per cent. Notably, this marks a 10 percentage point decrease in Democratic support since January. Conversely, among women aged 40 and above, support for Democrats increased from 50 per cent to 58 per cent, while Republican backing has dwindled from 28 per cent to 16 per cent.

Despite the shift in voting intentions, many affluent Indian American donors continue to support the Republican Party. An October 24 analysis by the Hindustan Times based on Federal Election Commission data indicated that prominent Indian American donors contributed over $15.8 million to Republican-affiliated political action committees and funds since 2025. In contrast, Democratic candidates garnered approximately $3.7 million from key contributors within the same community. This reflects a four-to-one fundraising advantage for Republicans among Indian American donors, primarily driven by wealth from the technology sector.

Veteran Democratic fundraiser Shekar Narasimhan noted a significant divergence, stating, "Trump is soaking up the money among big Indian-American donors. The people giving less than $1,000 are Democrats now. The people giving more than half a million dollars are Republicans." He pointed out a marked increase in smaller contributions to Democratic committees.

The broader political landscape continues to show dissatisfaction with Trump’s presidency, influencing the voting preferences of not just Indian Americans but various demographics across the nation. Recent national opinion polls indicate a Democratic advantage in congressional voting preference, with issues surrounding the economy and affordability resonating among voters.

As the midterm elections approach, it will be crucial to watch how these trends impact overall election outcomes and the shifting dynamics within the Indian American political landscape.