Putin and Modi Set to Strengthen India-Russia Ties in Upcoming Summit

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India this week to engage in discussions aimed at enhancing economic, defence, and energy partnerships. This visit comes during a period of complex geopolitical dynamics, particularly regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. Putin's arrival is set for Thursday, with talks planned with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday. Both leaders are anticipated to evaluate current bilateral cooperation and address crucial regional matters, culminating in the signing of various agreements.

India has maintained its purchase of discounted oil from Russia, despite criticism from the United States, which claims this trade sustains Moscow's revenue amid the conflict in Ukraine. In response to these purchases, the US has implemented a 50% tariff on Indian imports, further straining trade relations. However, Indian officials argue that their energy decisions are driven by consumer needs and the rising energy demands of the nation's 1.4 billion citizens.

Putin last visited India in 2021, and Modi's visit to Moscow occurred last year. The two leaders also had a brief meeting in September during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held in China. This summit is significant not only for India-Russia relations but also in the context of the US's renewed efforts for a peace plan regarding Ukraine. As stated by Sreeram Sundar Chaulia, an expert on international relations, India has opted for a subtle diplomatic approach rather than overt mediation, which could complicate its ties with both Russia and the US.

The forthcoming summit is expected to focus heavily on economic collaboration. Key areas of discussion will include trade facilitation, maritime cooperation, healthcare initiatives, and media exchanges. Sources indicate that India aims to boost exports of pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, and textiles to Russia while advocating for the removal of non-tariff barriers in trade. Additionally, long-term agreements for fertiliser supplies from Russia are on the agenda.

As the US pressures India to reduce its reliance on Russian oil, the Indian government has reiterated its commitment to national interests and energy security. Indian officials have expressed intentions to adhere to international sanctions while seeking alternatives among non-sanctioned entities. Harsh Pant, vice president of foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation, highlighted that India does not wish to entirely sever energy ties with Russia, stating that future oil imports will hinge on market conditions and the effectiveness of sanctions.

Energy cooperation will be a major topic at the summit, with discussions anticipated regarding India's investments in Russia's Far East and potential expansions in civil nuclear collaboration. The Kudankulam nuclear power plant in Tamil Nadu, developed with Russian assistance, remains central to this partnership, with ongoing talks focused on local equipment manufacturing and joint ventures in third countries.

Defence cooperation will also be a significant point of discussion. India is expected to advocate for expedited deliveries of S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, with an emphasis on overcoming delays attributed to supply chain issues stemming from the conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, negotiations may include acquiring additional S-400 units or upgraded models, although no formal announcements are expected during the visit.

Indian defence officials plan to discuss enhancements for the Su-30MKI fighter jets and the timely delivery of crucial military equipment, along with improved coordination on joint exercises and disaster relief initiatives. Despite diversifying its military procurement over recent years, Russia remains India's primary supplier of military hardware. Moscow is also keen to promote its stealth fighter jet, the Su-57, although India is considering options from other international suppliers as well.

As the summit approaches, both nations are poised to solidify their long-standing relationship, commemorating 25 years of the India-Russia Strategic Partnership, with a series of agreements aiming to bolster cooperation across various sectors, including trade, health, agriculture, and cultural exchange.