Pakistan's Role in Renewed Yemen Conflict Raises Concerns

Recent escalations in Yemen have intensified following accusations of attacks exchanged between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis. The renewed conflict brings to light Pakistan's growing military ties with Saudi Arabia, particularly in the context of a mutual defence agreement signed in September 2022. This agreement has led to questions about whether Pakistan may intervene militarily, especially as it grapples with its own challenges, including insurgency in Balochistan and tensions along the border with Afghanistan.

The Houthis have accused Saudi Arabia of bombing Yemen's airport in an alleged attempt to stop an Iranian flight. This flight was reportedly carrying a Houthi delegation returning from the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's former Supreme Leader. The Associated Press has indicated that the attack was seen as an effort to prevent potential arms or military personnel from reaching Yemen.

Sanaa, Yemen's capital, and much of the north, including the port city of Hodeidah, remain under Houthi control, while the internationally recognised Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, operates from Aden in the south. This division has persisted since the Houthis seized much of northern Yemen in 2014, displacing the government.

The recent hostilities have broken a truce that had been in place since 2022, which had previously withstood the tensions arising from the US-Iran conflict. Prior to this escalation, a flight from Iran successfully landed in Sanaa, marking the first such occurrence in a decade, which further inflamed regional tensions after Saudi jets purportedly tried to intercept it.

In response to renewed hostilities, the Houthis retaliated by launching strikes towards Saudi Arabia, targeting key locations such as Abha International Airport and warning airlines to avoid Saudi airspace. These actions represent a significant escalation in hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

The implications for Pakistan are considerable. Having signed a NATO-style defence agreement with Saudi Arabia last year, the pact specifies that any aggression against one party will be deemed aggression against the other. Reports suggest that the defence agreement includes provisions related to Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, underscoring the serious nature of the partnership.

While Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has reaffirmed the support for Saudi Arabia, the nation's current challenges complicate its position. Pakistan has not engaged directly in the Yemen conflict, although its military has trained thousands of Saudi troops in the past. Complicating matters, Pakistan has faced unrest within its borders, including attacks from Baloch militant groups and ongoing territorial disputes with Afghanistan.

Now, with approximately 8,000 Pakistani troops, including fighter aircraft, stationed in Saudi Arabia under the mutual defence pact, the pressure on Pakistan to respond in defence of its commitment could escalate if the conflicts continue to intensify. Defence experts now speculate whether Pakistan will be compelled to intervene should Saudi Arabia face increased aggression from the Houthis, potentially drawing the nation into a deeper conflict in the region.