Economic Survey Predicts India's GDP Growth for 2026-27

India's Economic Survey for the fiscal year 2025-26 has projected the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at between 6.8% and 7.2% for the fiscal year 2026-27. Released by the Union Ministry of Finance on January 29, 2026, this report outlines the current state of India's economy and suggests strategies to enhance growth in the coming years.

The Economic Survey attributes India's recent robust macroeconomic performance to several factors, noting that the issues currently affecting the economy are largely driven by global geopolitical uncertainties rather than domestic shortcomings. It states, "The paradox of 2025 is that India's strongest macroeconomic performance in decades has collided with a global system that no longer rewards macroeconomic success with currency stability."

The rupee's recent decline has raised concerns, recently hitting an unprecedented 92 against the United States dollar. However, the survey insists that this depreciation does not reflect the underlying health of the Indian economy. It argues that various indicators, including strong corporate balance sheets and comfortable liquidity, indicate a solid economic foundation.

"Growth is good; the outlook remains favourable; inflation is contained... the rupee's valuation does not accurately reflect India's stellar economic fundamentals," the survey explains, implying that the currency is not performing in line with economic realities.

The survey supports its optimistic forecast with the First Advance Estimates, projecting real GDP growth of 7.4% and Gross Value Added growth of 7.3%, solidifying India's status as the fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year. This outlook stands in contrast to predictions from international organisations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which anticipates India's GDP growth to decrease to 6.4% next year.

While acknowledging challenging global conditions, the report highlights that domestic drivers of growth remain strong. It emphasises that macroeconomic stability is firmly established, allowing for cautious optimism in the face of international uncertainties.

Policy dynamism and responsive governance measures, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalisation, have been credited with mitigating some burdens on citizens, aiming to stabilise economic growth.

As the country prepares for the upcoming Union Budget presentation, the Economic Survey underscores the impact of its reforms and policies on enhancing medium-term growth potential, suggesting that the dynamics within the economy remain poised for advancement despite external pressures.

Overall, the Economic Survey paints a picture of resilience and growth, indicating that India is well-positioned to navigate through current global economic challenges with a commitment to sustaining its growth trajectory.