Trump Warns Brazil of 50% Tariff Over Bolsonaro Trial and Digital Policies
| 2025-07-10
Containers are pictured at Tecon Rio Grande, the container terminal of the Port of Rio Grande, in southern Brazil. The country was among the latest countries to receive a letter from President Donald Trump informing the nation of the rate its goods will be tariffed as of August 1, absent a trade deal.
Donald Trump has threatened Brazil with a 50% tariff from August, citing the trial of Jair Bolsonaro and alleged attacks on US tech firms.
The letter accused Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration of conducting a politically motivated legal case, which Trump described as “a witch hunt that should end immediately.” Bolsonaro, who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022, is on trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 election results. Brazilian prosecutors allege he and his associates conspired to carry out a coup and plotted potential violence against President Lula, accusations Bolsonaro denies.
Trump’s tariff threat marks a significant escalation compared to the 10% duties already applied to Brazilian products under earlier trade measures. According to US trade data, the United States recorded a $6.8 billion trade surplus with Brazil last year, meaning it sold more goods to Brazil than it purchased.
In his letter, Trump also alleged that the Brazilian government engaged in “insidious attacks on free elections and the fundamental free speech rights of Americans,” referencing recent court rulings that ordered US social media platforms to remove content related to election disinformation. Trump Media, his own technology company, has been among the firms involved in legal disputes over these orders.
Brazil’s Supreme Court recently ruled that social media companies could be held liable for the content users post, a decision that triggered criticism from several US technology firms. The Brazilian authorities have also briefly suspended Elon Musk’s platform, X, previously known as Twitter, after it declined to comply with government orders.
The former president indicated that he would direct the Office of the United States Trade Representative to initiate a formal investigation—known as a Section 301 probe—into Brazil’s digital trade practices.
Such investigations have previously been used to justify tariffs on countries deemed to be unfairly targeting US businesses.
In his message, Trump expressed personal support for Bolsonaro, stating that he “respected him greatly,” and called the legal proceedings an “international disgrace.”
Brazilian President Lula has rejected Trump’s demands and described the intervention as inappropriate. “He needs to know that the world has changed,” Lula told reporters earlier this week. “We don’t want an emperor.”
This is not the first instance of Trump employing trade measures to pressure other nations over domestic policies. Earlier in the year, he warned Colombia of tariffs rising to 50% if it did not agree to accept deported migrants from the United States, a demand Colombia ultimately accepted to avoid the penalties.
Other countries have also received similar letters in recent days. According to Trump’s office, nations including the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Moldova, and Iraq were notified of new tariffs that will take effect from August unless new trade arrangements are negotiated. The proposed rates varied from 10% to 30%, depending on the country and the sector affected.
JPMorgan economists noted in a briefing that the scale of the tariff threat against Brazil was unexpected. “It is possible these tariffs will never be implemented, as some in the market are hoping for,” analysts wrote, referring to the broader uncertainty over whether Trump’s trade measures will proceed.
The United States and Brazil have historically maintained strong economic ties, though relations between Trump and Lula have remained strained. The former presidents, Trump and Bolsonaro, cultivated a close political alliance during their overlapping terms. Both men ultimately lost re-election and were criticised for refusing to acknowledge their defeats.
Context
The potential tariff is part of Trump’s broader approach to using trade policy as leverage over foreign governments. While previous administrations have also employed economic tools to influence diplomatic outcomes, Trump has more frequently tied tariffs to unrelated domestic issues, including legal cases and immigration policy.
Analysts say this approach risks disrupting longstanding trade relationships and could provoke retaliatory measures. Should the tariffs on Brazil be implemented, they could affect a wide range of sectors, from agriculture and mining to consumer goods, potentially increasing costs for US importers and consumers.
Trump’s deadline for Brazil and other countries to negotiate trade agreements is set for 1 August. Until then, uncertainty remains over whether the tariffs will be enforced or withdrawn as part of broader negotiations.
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