Russia Deploys Nuclear-Capable Oreshnik Missiles in Belarus

Russia's Defence Ministry has announced the deployment of its new nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system in Belarus, marking a significant escalation in military capabilities in Eastern Europe. The announcement was accompanied by a video showcasing the missiles being transported through wooded areas for combat readiness.

The Oreshnik missile, which translates to 'hazel tree' in Russian, was first publicly revealed in November 2024 when it was used in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed this event as a successful test, asserting that the weapon's capabilities could rival those of nuclear arms and claiming that they are nearly impossible to intercept.

Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka stated that the Oreshnik systems would enter service by the end of 2025. However, specifics regarding their precise locations within Belarus remain undisclosed, although reports suggest they may be stationed at a former airbase near Krichev, located approximately 190 miles east of Minsk.

The Oreshnik missile is classified as an intermediate-range ballistic missile, with a range estimated at around 5,000 kilometres. This range poses a direct threat to many European nations, with state-run media asserting that it could reach targets in Poland within 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels within 17 minutes. Such claims have yet to be independently verified.

The deployment of the Oreshnik missiles comes amidst ongoing peace negotiations between the United States and Ukraine. US President Donald Trump recently hosted Ukrainian President Volodyr Zelenskyy, suggesting that the two nations were closer than ever to a resolution of their ongoing conflict. However, significant divisions remain, particularly regarding Russia's demands concerning Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is under Russian control.

Military analysts have expressed scepticism towards the Russian government's claims about the Oreshnik's capabilities. The Pentagon has previously described the missile as experimental and a derivative of the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile programme, which was reportedly shelved in 2018. Experts believe the Oreshnik may have been developed by removing a booster stage from the RS-26, thus limiting its range.

In a broader context, the deployment is seen as part of Russia's updated nuclear doctrine, which asserts that any conventional military attack involving a nuclear-armed nation will be regarded as a joint assault. This doctrine effectively places Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella, further complicating regional security dynamics.

The move to station the Oreshnik missiles in Belarus follows Russia's earlier deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the country, which has been a focal point of international concern since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Lukashenka's regime has faced numerous sanctions from Western nations due to human rights violations and collaboration with Russia in its military operations.

In summary, the introduction of the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus represents a notable shift in military posturing by Russia, intensifying the already fraught geopolitical landscape in Europe and raising questions about the future of security in the region.