Proposed Changes to H-1B Visa Lottery System Under Review

The United States government is moving towards a significant overhaul of its H-1B visa lottery system, with a proposed rule currently under review by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). This rule, submitted by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), introduces a 'weighted selection process' that would prioritise H-1B applications based on salary levels. Such a change could substantially affect how visas are allocated for skilled foreign workers in the United States.

New Selection Process

The proposed mechanism aims to allocate H-1B visas based on the wage tiers established by the Department of Labor (DOL). Under this system, applicants with higher salary offers would have an increased likelihood of being selected in the lottery. Specifically, individuals with wages classified in the highest tier (Level IV) would have their applications entered into the lottery multiple times, enhancing their chances of selection. In contrast, those in the lowest tier (Level I) would only receive a single entry.

This approach marks a departure from the current system, where all applicants, regardless of their wage offers, have equal odds of being chosen. Under the existing lottery system, the selection odds for all wage levels are approximately 29.59%. The proposed rule indicates a divergence in these odds, favouring higher earners, and is expected to be implemented before the next H-1B filing season, which begins in March.

Implications for Applicants

The ramifications of this new lottery system are particularly significant for recent graduates and lower-tier professionals, many of whom represent the Indian diaspora seeking employment in the United States. In the fiscal year ending September 2024, data from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicated that approximately 57% of H-1B approvals were granted to Indian beneficiaries. This statistic is indicative of the strong demand for H-1B visas among Indian nationals, particularly recent graduates from US universities.

According to the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), the proposed weighted selection process could increase the chances of selection for applicants with Level IV wage offers by 107%, while decreasing the odds for Level I applicants by 48%. Consequently, this shift could favour mid-career professionals and those in senior roles, while potentially disadvantaging entry-level applicants.

Future of H-1B Visa Allocations

As the review by the OMB progresses, many stakeholders, including employers and immigration attorneys, are closely monitoring developments. The OMB's review is the final procedural step before the rule can be finalised and made public, with no additional period for public comment expected. Employers are now preparing for the implications this could have on their H-1B filing strategies moving forward.

The proposed changes are part of a broader effort by the current administration to reshape the H-1B visa programme, which is heavily utilised by the technology sector and other industries seeking specialised talent from abroad. The outcome of this review will be pivotal in determining how H-1B visa allocations will function in the future, potentially creating new challenges for lower-tier applicants seeking to enter the US workforce.