Bihar Exit Polls 2025: NDA Projected to Regain Power with 148 Seats

Recent exit polls indicate a significant lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar assembly elections, held in two phases on November 6 and November 11. Analysts project that the Nitish Kumar-led NDA may secure approximately 148 seats out of the 243 available in the assembly.

The exit polls have painted a challenging picture for the opposition coalition known as the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Estimates suggest that this alliance may capture only around 88 seats, falling short of the necessary majority. Pollsters have largely dismissed the claims made by Prashant Kishor regarding his Jan Suraaj party, predicting it will finish with minimal support in the single digits.

A collective analysis, termed a 'poll of polls,' reveals that the NDA is expected to obtain between 133 to 159 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to receive between 75 to 101 seats. Other minor parties and independent candidates are anticipated to win around 2 to 10 seats.

Different polling organisations have shared varying estimates. The Dainik Bhaskar poll indicates potential NDA victories ranging from 145 to 160 seats, while the JVC-Polls suggest a narrower margin of 135 to 150 seats for the NDA and 88 to 103 for the Mahagathbandhan. Matrize projects a more optimistic outcome for the NDA, estimating it could win between 147 to 167 seats.

As the second phase of voting concluded, the Election Commission reported a voter turnout of 68.52%. This follows an earlier turnout of 65.08% in the first phase, suggesting strong public engagement in the electoral process. Notably, Kishanganj recorded the highest turnout at 76.26%, while Nawada had the lowest at 57.11%.

The primary contest in this election is between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. The NDA is composed of several parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United), while the Mahagathbandhan includes the RJD, Congress, and several leftist parties.

In the previous assembly election in 2020, the NDA won 125 seats, whereas the Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats, with the RJD becoming the largest party within the opposition despite the alliance's overall defeat.

As for what the exit polls indicate, they provide an insight into the prevailing political sentiment. However, it is essential to note that these projections may not accurately reflect the final outcomes, which will be confirmed when votes are counted on November 14. Political analysts will be keenly observing whether the exit polls hold true or if the electorate will deliver unexpected results.

"The exit polls offer a broad outline of the political mood, but the final numbers will depend on actual counting," stated an unnamed political analyst.

As parties prepare their strategies leading up to the results, the political landscape of Bihar remains dynamic and uncertain, with many waiting to see if the anticipated trends will materialise or if surprises await.