Portugal Election 2025: Third Vote in Three Years Unlikely to End Political Deadlock
| 2025-05-18
Portugal votes again amid political uncertainty
Portugal holds its third general election in as many years, with no clear parliamentary majority expected, prolonging political instability.
Portugal returned to the polls on Sunday for its third general election in three years, with expectations that the outcome will once again fall short of delivering a stable government.
The centre-right Democratic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, is projected to win the most votes but likely without securing the 116 seats needed for a majority in the 230-seat National Assembly. Without that threshold, the European Union member nation of approximately 10.6 million people may remain mired in political gridlock.
Minority government forecast despite lead
Final opinion polls published ahead of the vote indicated a narrow lead for the Democratic Alliance over the Socialist Party, headed by Pedro Nuno Santos. However, projections suggest another minority government is likely—continuing a period of instability that has disrupted governance since 2022.
Montenegro, 52, a former lawyer, called the snap election after losing a parliamentary vote of confidence in March. The vote followed concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving clients of his family’s consultancy business, which held government contracts. He has denied any wrongdoing and said he no longer manages the firm, having passed it on to his children.
The election campaign has been dominated by concerns over immigration, housing shortages, and the rising cost of living. Voters expressed growing dissatisfaction with the country’s traditional parties, the centre-right Social Democrats and the centre-left Socialist Party, which have alternated in power for much of the last half-century.
“I really don't know who to go for,” said Lisbon resident Patricia Fortes. “I'm fed up with the main parties, but then I feel I don't know the other parties well enough.”
Rise of the populist right
The hard-right Chega (Enough) party is expected to finish third once again, cementing its position as a disruptive force in Portuguese politics. Chega surged from 12 to 50 seats in the last election, gaining support for its tough stance on immigration and anti-corruption rhetoric.
However, the party has also faced internal controversies. One lawmaker was accused of stealing suitcases from Lisbon airport, while another allegedly forged a deceased person’s signature. Both resigned. Chega’s leader, Andre Ventura, a former football commentator, has publicly promised “zero tolerance” for corruption but was briefly hospitalised twice in the final week of the campaign due to illness.
Despite its growing influence, Prime Minister Montenegro has ruled out forming a coalition with Chega, complicating the process of building a parliamentary majority.
Immigration and housing dominate debate
Portugal has seen a dramatic rise in immigration in recent years. Government data shows that the number of legal immigrants tripled from under 500,000 in 2018 to more than 1.5 million by early 2025. Many have arrived from Brazil and parts of Asia to work in agriculture and tourism.
While the Socialist government had previously pursued an open-door policy, Montenegro’s administration adopted a tougher stance. During the campaign, it announced the expulsion of approximately 18,000 undocumented migrants, a routine procedure but one that drew criticism over its timing.
Pedro Nuno Santos described the move as “a Trumpification of Portuguese politics”, referencing former United States President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration approach.
Housing has also emerged as a key issue. Soaring property prices and rents have pushed many families out of urban centres. The National Statistics Institute reported a 9% rise in house prices in 2024, while rents in the capital Lisbon rose over 7%—the steepest increase in three decades.
With an average pre-tax monthly salary of €1,200 and a minimum wage of €870, many Portuguese citizens find themselves priced out of their own cities.
Voter fatigue and political fatigue
The latest vote reflects widespread frustration with political paralysis. “Voting again,” read the front page of the daily newspaperPúblico, echoing public exhaustion with repeated elections and the lack of decisive outcomes.
Pollster Marina Costa Lobo, from Lisbon University's Institute of Social Sciences, noted that current surveys suggest little change from previous results. “What the polls indicate is that there will not be major differences from the last election results,” she said.
Montenegro has campaigned on the need for a stronger mandate, saying: “We have to do our part at home and we have to be part of the solutions abroad, in Europe and in the world. And for that we need a strong government.”
Polling stations opened at 08:00 local time (07:00 GMT) and closed at 20:00 (19:00 GMT), with most official results expected by midnight. As Portugal awaits the final count, the prospect of continued negotiation and coalition-building looms large.
Political fragmentation and economic pressure
Portugal’s political fragmentation reflects broader challenges facing European democracies, where traditional parties have lost ground to emerging movements. Economic pressures—including inflation, rising housing costs, and stagnant wages—have sharpened public discontent.
Despite recent economic growth, Portugal remains one of Western Europe’s poorest nations, making cost-of-living issues particularly acute. As the European Union grapples with external pressures, including trade tensions and security concerns, Lisbon’s ability to offer stable leadership remains uncertain.
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