Союзный Бюджет 2025-26: Фискальная дорожная карта, основанная на реформах
| 2025-02-16
Министр финансов Нирмала Ситараман обращается к СМИ после представления бюджета Индии на 2025-26 годы в Нью-Дели 1 февраля 2025 года.
Ожидается, что экономика Индии вырастет на 6,4% в реальных терминах и на 9,7% в номинальных терминах.
The Union Budget 2025-26 was presented on February 1, 2025 amidst significant global uncertainties, addressing both domestic and international economic challenges. The discussions in Parliament highlighted the complex macroeconomic environment and India’s reform trajectory.
Responding to the debate on the Union Budget in Parliament last week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman emphasized that global conflicts, economic stagnation, and restrictive trade policies have made budget preparation more complex. Despite these hurdles, India’s economy is expected to grow by 6.4% in real terms and 9.7% in nominal terms, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO). Inflation, particularly food inflation, appears to be moderating.
Key Budgetary Priorities
The 2025-26 Union Budget is structured to accelerate growth, secure inclusive development, invigorate private investment, and uplift household sentiment. The key focus areas include:
- Boosting Agriculture and MSMEs to ensure economic resilience
- Encouraging Investments and Exports as primary growth engines
- Strengthening Rural Development to build long-term prosperity
- Employment-Driven Growth to enhance workforce participation
- Enhancing Manufacturing and Domestic Consumption
- Sustained Public Capital Expenditure to drive infrastructure projects
- Private Sector Investment Revival to encourage entrepreneurship
- Innovation-Driven Economy to foster technological advancements
Sectoral Budgetary Outlays
- Agriculture & Allied Activities: ₹1.71 lakh crore
- Rural Development: ₹2.67 lakh crore
- Urban Development & Transport: ₹6.45 lakh crore
- Health & Education: ₹2.27 lakh crore
- Defense (excluding pensions): ₹4.92 lakh crore
The effective capital expenditure is projected at 15.48% of GDP, nearly matching the fiscal deficit of 4.4%. This indicates that borrowed resources are being efficiently channeled into capital projects rather than revenue expenditures.
Increased Transfers to States
Resource allocation to states continues to grow, reaffirming the government’s commitment to cooperative federalism:
- 2020-21: ₹13.44 lakh crore
- 2022-23: ₹15.56 lakh crore
- 2023-24: ₹17.98 lakh crore
- 2024-25: ₹22.91 lakh crore
- 2025-26: ₹25.1 lakh crore
This steady increase in allocations emphasizes regional development and fiscal decentralization.
Fiscal Reforms and Transparency Measures
Since 2021, key reforms have strengthened fiscal discipline and budget transparency:
- 2021: Off-budget borrowing of ₹1.2 lakh crore by the Food Corporation of India was formally included in the budget.
- 2022: Urban housing’s off-budget borrowings of ₹33,000 crore were regularized.
- 2023: Capital outlays for railways and highways were integrated into the Union Budget to reduce debt burdens.
- 2024: The new tax regime became the default, offering relief to middle-class taxpayers.
- 2025: Ministries were empowered with enhanced financial delegation, improving expenditure efficiency.
Addressing Economic Concerns
1. Rising Unemployment:
The labor force participation rate increased from 49.8% (2017-18) to 60% (2023-24), with unemployment declining from 6% to 3.2%. The Rozgar Mela has facilitated 25 lakh central government job appointments.
2. Inflation Management:
Retail inflation remains within the RBI’s tolerance band of 2-6%. The government is ensuring price stability through:
- Affordable Bharat Dal
- Strategic onion stock management
- Promotion of high-yielding seeds and agricultural productivity
3. Rupee Depreciation:
Despite global currency fluctuations, India’s rupee remains relatively stable. The depreciation is in line with global trends, as noted by former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan.
4. Household Savings & Debt:
Household savings have grown at 8.9% CAGR since 2019-20, with investments in real assets rising significantly.
5. Public Spending and Social Sector Allocations:
Contrary to claims of budget cuts, key allocations have increased:
- Social Welfare: ₹60,652 crore (up from ₹56,651 crore)
- Education: ₹1.29 lakh crore (up from ₹1.26 lakh crore)
- Health: ₹98,311 crore (up from ₹89,487 crore)
Additionally, unspent balances from previous allocations remain available for use:
- PM Poshan (Midday Meals): ₹5,525 crore
- Swachh Bharat Urban: ₹12,319 crore
- Jal Jeevan Mission: ₹13,780 crore
- MGNREGA: ₹4,351 crore
Budget: Made for the Future?
This budget strikes a balance between fiscal prudence and economic growth. By maintaining high capital expenditure, supporting states, and encouraging private investment, the government aims to keep India on a robust growth trajectory. The focus remains on inclusive development, employment generation, and sustainable fiscal management.
The government has reaffirmed its commitment to India’s long-term economic vision, ensuring stability amidst global uncertainties and setting the stage for sustained progress in the coming years.
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