India should watch out for adventurism by ‘significantly weaker’ Pakistan in 2021
General Pervez Musharraf came to power after Kargil and a group of generals could do the same now, a noted security expert has said
With Pakistan becoming further economically weaker due to a slowdown in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project and the conflict between the executive and the military continuing, 2021 could see some ‘adventurous action’ by the country against India, a noted security expert has cautioned.
Writing in The Print, former Director National Security Council
Secretariat Tara Kartha explains some factors that may prompt ‘populist action’ by Pakistan against India.
“The new year will not find an easy head at the top, either in the army or by extension, in the Prime Minister’s Office. That, in turn, means that some adventurous action by Pakistan cannot be ruled out; not martial law, which is entirely unnecessary when the army is already in full control, but some populist action against enemy number one – India,” she says in the article.
Pointing out that General Pervez Musharraf came to power after Kargil, Kartha says “a group of generals could do the same”.
Further, in relations with India, forecasting is shaded with grays rather than an outright black, she says in the article.
Besides the other issues between India and Pakistan including the inclusion of Kashmir in its map, the author notes that the year 2021 will also see Pakistan adding Gilgit-Baltistan to its constitutionally mandated territory, in a significant ‘tit for tat’ move that should give it satisfaction.
Kartha points out that the slowdown of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will further hit the already slowed down economy of Pakistan.
“If or when President Xi does visit Pakistan in 2021, what can be expected is large declarations and small investments, with the total not reaching anywhere near the much-acclaimed $60-billion mark. It’s the classic ‘chicken and egg’ situation. Pakistan needs more investment for growth, but it won’t come in till the economy does a little better. That doesn’t mean China is going to back off. But it does mean that there is no ‘game-changer’ available in 2021,” she says in the article.
Keeping in mind all the parameters, Kartha says that 2021 will see a significantly weaker Pakistan.